How is the Real Estate Market These Days?

I get asked this question every day.

The answer depends on who’s asking; and what role they’re playing.

For the Buyer the market is FANTASTIC! Prices of homes are rock bottom and not expected to go much lower (in the current state of economy) and interest rates are also rock bottom.

It’s no longer LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION… it’s PRICE, PRICE, PRICE! You can go to any neighborhood and find a home. There are dozens available. For example, I have a home listed at $280,000, but right next door, a similar home is listed for $265,000. There are only minor differences: a corner lot and a larger square footage, etc.

For the Seller, the market STINKS!. There are over 2350 homes on the market right now in my small market area of Whatcom County. That’s a chunk! What that means is the competition is overwhelming! To sell a home the seller must cut his price dramatically. If not the home just gets stale on the market and just sits there, and sits there.

To make things worse, there are more and more foreclosures forcing the home prices down even more. This is true in every market niche’.

On some occasions the seller must bring money to the closing table. The buyer can usually demand a “typical” 10% discount in price, and likely get it. That is, if the seller must sell.

Another group for which the market STINKS is the “For Sale by Owner” (FSBO) market. The FSBO will probably not sell anything in this market. Why? Because FSBO’s always price their homes too high, therefore “out of the market.” They’ll suffer along for months before giving up.

About 90% of FSBO’s eventually use a Realtor. But by that time the seller is exhausted and has lost all patience. Also, most FSBO’s think their home is the ONLY home in the world and rarely do they lower their price to be “in the market.” (I’ll do more on FSBO’s another time.)

This is what’s known as a “Buyer’s Market.”

Although, few will admit it, the Banker also thinks the market STINKS! Why? Because they have a boat load of money to lend and very few people can qualify. The typical buyer must have a credit score of 700 or more to qualify for conventional mortgages.

The exception is FHA loans. Credit scores don’t really matter for FHA loans. The lenders do, however, look at other things, such a length of time on a job, etc.

The Banker is stuck. They have all this money to loan. They can’t make money unless they loan money. But, with the interest rates so low, all their profit is being eaten up by operating costs and taxes. Yes, even the bankers (although few will admit it) think this market STINKS!

As for the Realtor, it generally STINKS. Most Realtors still in the business have probably used up most of their savings and are working part-time jobs just to make end meet. But this may not be a bad thing.

It’s not really all that bad because it helps weed out the bad Realtors. Most of the Realtors who are currently left are pretty good (with some exceptions) and these are the one’s you should work with.

There are other actors who have roles to play in the Real Estate market: the Title & Escrow companies, the appraisers, and home inspectors, to name a few. Most of these have been thinned out by the Buyer’s Market as well. It’s a struggle for the fittest.

WHY is the market this way and when will it change?

The answer is people in general at this time, are afraid to make the commitment on a major purchase like a home. They have no clue what’s going to happen with their jobs and the economy. That’s the main reason the real estate market is stagnating. There’s a bunch of DORKS running the show in Washington DC. And have been for the last 8 years.

It’s my prediction that the Real Estate market will stay pretty well flounder until November.

In November the lunatics in Washington DC may be changed for a new set. Until that time the whole economy is being held hostage by a bunch of “theorists.”

Why do I say that? Because very few of the lunatics in Washington DC, from the President on down, have ever held a job outside of academia or the in private sector. They’ve never made a payroll . They are using their tenure in Washington as a “social experiment” practicing their “theories.” As you can tell, those “theories” just don’t work. They have no idea how it “really works” in the real world.

Those folk have no idea what makes our economy robust.

If they are re-elected in November, you can expect the market to really crash and burn. In fact, if there’s not a major turn-over in Washington, the private ownership of real estate may be in jeopardy. But, then again, that’s what many theorists want.

If there’s a major change in control of congress in November, you’ll see home prices start edging up as well as interest rates. Foreclosures will reduce and people won’t have to sell their house. That will reduce housing inventory. The Bond market will go down and the stock market start heading up. Recovery “MAY” start happening in February and March.

How’s the Real Estate Market? What’s your opinion?